Last fall, researcher Eric Kaufmann concluded that “trans identification is in free fall among the young.” His declaration was a little premature – his sources measured identifying as non-binary, not transgender, and were not nationally representative. But after digging into the best data I could find, I concluded he was probably right: Identifying as transgender and non-binary really did decline among U.S. young adults after 2023, and even among teens as young as 13.
Kaufmann found that identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual was also declining, but most of his sources were college samples. At the time there wasn’t much nationally representative data on sexual orientation for 2024 or 2025, and the little there was had low sample size. Read more»
Jean M. Twenge | “Non-heterosexual identity is in free-fall among U.S. young adults: Bisexual Women Show the Biggest Decline” | March 3, 2026 HT: Anthony Bradley
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Relevant comment: “The 2025 interviews were in only states that couldn’t finish the survey before the end of 2024, so data collection extended into early 2025. I am not sure then that the 2025 numbers can be directly compared with the full-year datasets. I’d also point out that the weighted frequencies reported in the Codebook do not seem to back the last paragraph’s assertion that fewer Americans in general identified as LGB in 2024 compared to 2022.”
So the clear thing from the data is that the young are more likely to identify as non-hetero, particularly young women, pointing to a cultural shift. But it remains to be seen whether it’s on the decline. I would have thought at least the trans trend has peaked though.